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ALL MODELS ARE WRONG BUT SOME ARE USEFUL

In the face of rapid change and globalisation, data driven risk management methods alone are no longer adequate.  The Future does not exist so there is no ‘future data’ available, therefore risk from Unquantifiable Uncertainty cannot be modelled; consequently it cannot be covered by traditional risk management practices or insurance.  However Unimaginable Risk Drivers must not be overlooked simply because they cannot be imagined, described or counted.  They will occur in the future and they are the risks most likely to destroy real businesses.

IECA Europe
Annual November 
Seminar & Dinner

Geneva
ALL MODELS ARE WRONG BUT SOME ARE USEFUL
Presented at the CCR-interactive 2015 Conference in London:
There is a naïve belief that mathematical models can foretell future risks…but they ignore ‘outliers’, include too few variables and use simplified assumptions.  In the face of rapid change and globalisation, data driven risk management methods alone are no longer adequate.  Risk from Unquantifiable Uncertainty cannot be modelled, therefore cannot be covered by traditional risk management practices or insurance.  Learn how to anticipate the Future and  protect your business from failure, even though the Future does not exist.
Credit Collections & Risk (CCR) Magazine
London UK
Energy Credit Risk - The Future & Career Prospects
Presented at the 28th European Credit Education Group Conference in Athens.
Click here to view or download the supporting presentation material.
IECA-Europe
Athens Greece
Risk Management Techniques & Tools
Presented at the 10th Annual Coal Markets Conference in Singapore
Click here to view or download a version of the presentation that includes additional material.
IBC
Singapore
Parts 1, 2 and 3 in a Credit Risk Management Guest Lecture Series
arranged by the International Trading Institute @ SMU  
Part 1: Strategic B2B Credit Risk Management
Part 2: Performance (Pre-Delivery) Risk Management
Part 3: Payment (Post Delivery) Risk Management
ITI @ SMU
Singapore
The Art of Assessing, Quantifying and Managing Buyer or Supplier Future Physical Performance Risk
Physical Performance Risk is not the same as Credit or Payment Risk so it is not correct to apply the same Probability of Default, Potential Future Exposure at Default, and Loss given Default measures to both.  The current general practice of applying the same measures to both leads to an erroneous, usually exaggerated, assessment of the risks related to future physical performance.  An alternative method is proposed to answer the response that 'there is no other way', and to initiate a debate.  Presented at the 3rd Annual Credit Risk in Energy Trading ConferenceAlso refer to an extended article on this subject by clicking this link: English; or for the Chinese version click this link: Chinese.
‘…thank you for chairing the conference and taking time to prepare a presentation. The feedback from the delegates was very good so thank you for helping to make this year’s conference a success.’  LH, Conference Producer Capital Markets, Marcus Evans
Marcus Evans
London UK
Hedging and Liquidity Risk
A discussion (English-Chinese) in relation to the management of future price risk, was presented in Shanghai, to an invited audience of EMBA/MBA and other Business Executives.  The inter-active presentation was followed by an enlightening discussion of Risk Management topics related to dealing with corporate customers and suppliers, commodity traders, banks and brokers.
One Business Executive and MBA Student commented:
‘Hedging and liquidity risk is still rather a new topic to most of businessmen and managers in China, except those working in banking and the other financial institutions. So your lecture will urge those managers, who want to grow their business in a healthier way, to learn more about the risk management tools. Simultaneously, your lecture will also raise awareness of what an important role credibility plays for a company in the market, which I think is even more important in China.’
BarrettWells Credit Research and T3P LIMITED
Shanghai PRC
China: A Review of Developments in Credit Management
Presentation to International Stream of the Annual 
CCR-i Credit Risk Conference
Credit Collections & Risk Magazine
London UK

Cash Flow Cycle Analysis (English)
Cash Flow Cycle Analysis (Chinese)
Discussion starter for Shenzhen Credit Managers' Club

Sino Credit Management Services Limited
Shenzhen PRC

Credit Management 2.0
Keynote Speech - Annual Credit Management Conference
Alex van Groningen
Noordwijkerhout Netherlands
The Role of the Credit Manager in 2008 FCIB Europe
Chemicals Group
Nice France

CVaR is Elegant Mathematics but is it Useful?
Measuring and Managing Credit Risk for Energy

energy risk training
London UK

Active Credit Management
It's More Than Collections!
It's Adding Value; Leading From Behind
Credit Collections & Risk Magazine
London UK

Country Risk Management (English/Chinese)
 - Joint Presentation with Ms LI Ming

FCIB China / CCPIT
Shenzhen PRC

Forensic Cash Flow Analysis Workshop Grange City Hotel 
London UK

Receivables Portfolio Management
and Payment Risk Mitigation
  Gan Y C - Singapore - wrote:  It was a great pleasure to meet an expert in credit management like you.  Your sharing was most enlightening and eye-opening for me.  Thank you.

Day Robinson Trade Finance Week
Geneva Switzerland
Buyer Payment Risk Management
Improving the odds of being paid in full and on time
ACT - Association of Corporate Treasurers 
One Whitehall Place London
International Trade Credit Management
Bare Essentials for Time Poor Executives
Barclays Bank Plc / Exporta
Canary Wharf London

Active Credit Management - Adding Value

FCIB Europe
Warsaw Poland

The Power of Credit 2006 St Anne's College
Oxford UK
Credit Management in 2015 Intrum Justitia Netherlands
Scheveningen
The Power of Credit 2004 Saïd Business School
Oxford UK
Credit Insurance? Bah! Humbug!
OPEN WITH ADOBE READER FOR CORRECT VIEWING
FCIB Europe
Amsterdam
Netherlands
There is another way to organise a Credit Department
OPEN WITH ADOBE READER FOR CORRECT VIEWING
IECA-Europe
Dublin RoI
The Future of Credit Management BunkerNews - Bunker Credit Forum
London UK
Credit Risk Analysis - a dual language case study English/Russian IBC
Vienna Austria
Trade Credit Scoring - a step by step abbreviated example Credit Summit 2001
London UK
Future Careers in Credit Management Credit Summit 2001
London UK
TradeCard FCIB Europe
Strasbourg France
Trade Credit Scoring FCIB
New York NY
Letters of Credit - Quo Vadis?
OPEN WITH ADOBE READER FOR CORRECT VIEWING
ICC
London UK
Credit Management in the 21st Century FCIB Europe
Rome Italy
Letters of Credit - the Administrative Process in one Oil Company  FCIB Europe
Brussels Belgium
Credit Management in Eastern Europe NACM
New Orleans 
Letters of Credit - a Commercial Credit Manager's Focus IBC
London UK
Country Risk & Bank Risk Management FCIB Europe
Vienna Austria
Travel Hints FCIB Europe
Basle Switzerland
 

 

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Last Updated:  June 28, 2018 17:41:45 +0100